The democrats are in a trick bag. That is what we used to call situations which usually wound up with tricky endings. First they have accomplished something they have wanted for some time. They have a black candidate for President. Their second accomplishment is they have a female candidate for President. This is where it gets tricky. These two candidates are of course opposing each other, and they are doing it vehemently. One of them has to lose.
Let’s look at the problem. To date, in this primary, Hillary has been able to hang on to her accepted constituency. Those would be blue collar, lower income, older, union members, etc. Obama has been able to attract the young, upperly mobile, college educated, liberal, etc. The problem is that elections for President are based on the votes of the Electoral College, not the popular vote. That means states must be won in order that their Electoral College votes go to that state’s winning candidate. The primaries should serve to identify a candidate who can carry big Electoral College states in order to win a general election.
A close examination of this primary shows that Hillary has won the big states but Obama has won the others. To date he has a majority of the pledged delegates to the convention, which would make him the presumed candidate for the Democratic Party. So vicious has their contest been however, that many Hillary voters have said they wouldn’t vote for Obama under any circumstance. The same is true of course for Obama voters regarding Hillary. Hillary has said that Obama cannot close the deal. He cannot carry the states he must carry in order to win a general election. Obama supporters have clearly said though that if Hillary pulls a fast one in order to get the nomination, they will either stay home on Election Day or, heaven forbid, vote for McCain.
So now the talk is of Vice Presidential selection. Consider that you are Obama and you had to choose Hillary for the second spot. Can you imagine a White House with Bill Clinton sitting on the sidelines with his wife as Vice President? Me either. Can you imagine a White House where Hillary is just a quiet subservient member of another Presidents cabinet? Me either. What is much more likely is an all out battle at the convention for the top spot.
The democrats have gotten themselves into this mess for some very honorable and high minded reasons. It just wasn’t supposed to happen all at once. Based on the aforementioned facts neither can win a general election. Hence, the trick bag.
For me and other like minded people it is a great show to watch. I suspect that John McCain is smiling all the way to the election. I am smiling with him.
Because this is my blog I will now offer my opinion of this next election. This world is too dangerous to turn over the reins of this government to a very young, untested, first term liberal senator. It is also way too dangerous to hand to an inexperienced junior senator with no military background and no track record of any success at anything. To me the choice is clear. I will go for age and wisdom every time over youth, exuberance and inexperience. While John McCain would not have been my first choice, compared with the other two, he is the only choice.
Ron Scarbro May 26, 2008